kira0802 wrote:The problem is that you won't see anyone saying openly that they like to read LNs. Sometimes, you have a LN-lover beside you, but he is scared that he would be rejected. Mantas are another story, but buying LN makes people think that you're an otaku.
I think we have already had this discussion once...oh well.
I never tell anyone in the real world I buy/read light novels. I simply don't find the reason to bombard everyone around me with niche stuff that only I would enjoy. This hasn't affected my buying habit a single bit, though. (Btw I read light novels openly in the public: on trains and in the campus. No one would give a damn if you just add a cheap 100 yen book cover on top of your novel.)
I guess the same applies to light novel readers in China too. Right now people are not worrying that the business would crash due to the lack of demand, but rather, whether the highly positive market response would encourage the few licensed publishers in China to take more risks and licenses then they can handle.
Piracy is a problem, but it is almost part of the life and the cost of any business in China. Most of the pirated light novels are just printed fan translations on poor quality paper. The licensed publishers fight against them by offering professional translations on good paper, at a highly competitive price and often with bonus gifts. They also have to ensure that books are released on schedule instead of just sitting on the licenses (tokyopop...) . People don't give a damn to licenses and will promptly turn to the pirated versions if the waiting time is slightly long.
In Japan, only 5% of all the anime audience are BD/DVD buyers, but the industry nevertheless thrives on it, supporting tens of thousands of workers and their families.
It is safe to say that it is pretty much the same for the light novel industry in China, with maybe only 5% of the fan translation readers or less buying licensed novels but the licensed publishers already have a healthy profit. The difference is that there are lots of upward potential in China, with the novels being priced at a level accessible to students, unlike Japan where anime BDs are clearly marketed as luxury goods and the mature market has close to zero growth potential.
Also, the consumption power of the young Chinese otakus, mostly early 20s in college, will only increase when they graduate. In China, you can never get $1 out of the pockets of 1.3 billion people (unless you were the government
). But as long as you can consistently get $10 out of the 1% of the population that both fits in your niche market and is willing to pay, your business will still be a great success.
ShadowZeroHeart wrote:but considering we are limiting to Japanese LN, i think it should not be that high, but i nvr conducted a study, so i wont know for sure,
The Kadokawa China spokesman expected that the latest Haruhi novel alone will have a figure of over 50k. Maybe not that ground-breaking, but considering that the top novel of the year sells only around 300k, and Haruhi is not the only light novel, it is not too bad.
Assume that most light novel readers have heard of and are interested in Haruhi, and also no casual buyer is involved (who will buy the last volume without reading the previous one), the effective market size consisting of readers willing to pay is likely around 50-60k. If the Western rule of 20% paying for 80%, then the total light novel readership in China is around 250k. If the Japanese anime market rule of 5% paying applies instead, then the total readership is around 1 million.
so I suggest we stick back to topic, what happened to this project?
I'd certainly love to see the translation, but sometimes I wonder if project requests and polls in these forums are of any use, regardless of the number of votes each request may get. Fan translation is after all a voluntary effort. With neither carrot nor stick, no one can dictate what project a translator should work on, except the translator himself.
