Military

[Poke2201]

Which brings me to think, does Japan really need the strategic interest right now?

[ainsoph9]

Given that they scared stiff of China and North Korea, I have a feeling that a possible answer is "Yes."

[Teh_ping]

Given that they scared stiff of China and North Korea, I have a feeling that a possible answer is "Yes."

Not a 'possibility', but a 'certainty'. No matter how many ties each country builds, there are always blades hidden in the smiles. :etting your guard down=you pay the price.

[Doraneko]

In any case whether Japan needs a military or not is an issue of naming only. SDF or not, Japan has the strongest naval force among all East Asian countries. It would be a joke to imagine that Japan is defenceless even without US assistance. If the reason for a military to exist is deterrence instead of some stupid ego boost, then they already have one - a very effective one too.

If they want, they can rename JSDF as the military or "Nerv" or "SOS" or "Catgirls" but everything will still be technically the same. The core problem is the budget cuts that have been preventing the de facto military from improving its people and equipment. "Military" is by no means a magic word that would make money pour into the military bases like rain. If the hypothetical Japanese National Military Force has insufficient funds to upgrade its arms, it will still call the Big Daddy for help in any event of military conflict.

But even a fool can tell the negative reactions from her neighbours will be tremendous if any change to the Peace Constitution is to be brought about. So why risk losing all the hard-earned trust and friendship, and thereby commercial relationships and business deals, for a label that would bring you nothing at all except some militaristic ego boost?

On top of that if they declare military independence, they will receive less protection from the US for sure since even the US is pressed with budget cuts. In all likelihood the unnecessary change will make Japan more prone to military attacks from hostile forces. All the hassles for nothing in return.

Rather than wasting time and energy on fruitless political rhetoric such as "legitimizing the Japanese military" or "abolishing article 9 of the constitution", it would be more beneficial for the nationalists and right-wingers to lobby for an increase in military spendings.

[Mystes]

Personally, I don't see any means for Japan to build up a military force.

1. SK won't bother attacking Japan. It's right now trying to beat Toyota in the American industry with its Hyundai. Also, both are considered as 'allies' to the US.
2. As mentionned in the prvious line, Japan already has American protection. Little countries or such would not dare attack Japan.
3. I don't know how much atomic bombs do Russia and China have. But each of these countries should have over 150, at least. As we saw, a single one can make a country give up. And there are no reasons why these two countries would decide to suddenly attack Japan.
4. Arab countries have their own matters to take care about.
5. Europe and Amrica (the continent) is too far.
6. Oceania is very weak in terms of war or such.
7. No, polar bears and pinguins won't do anything.

Most of my points are meaningless, but I want to emphasis on number 2 and 3. Japan has more economic issues right now, just as SK, China, bottom Asia, Russia and such. Plus, if NK decides to make war, it would attack SK first. And as a matter of fact, CHina doesn't regard NK as a 'ally'.

[Doraneko]

Personally, I don't see any means for Japan to build up a military force.

They already have a military force of respectable size and power, regardless how they name it officially. The strength of JSDF is arguably beyond the minimal "self-defence" purposes as envisioned by the drafters of the post-WW2 peace treaty and the 1947 constitution, just as how the DPRK is far from democratic, people-centric in nature and is not a republic at all.

Spoiler! :

Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. 2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

OT: I can't see how anyone may argue that JSDF is not "land, sea, and air forces". And if they really recognize themselves as having the right of belligerency deprived, there is no reason to maintain such a strong armed force and an arsenal of ICBMs anyway since they have no right to engage in wars. (FYI under international law "belligerency" means the status of being engaged in wars and it applies to both the aggressor and the attacked.)

But for other points I mostly agree with you.

Small scale conflicts will continue between Japan and SK as well as between Japan and China over the tiny islands in the Japan Sea and the Pacific. But I can't see how such conflicts will blow up into full-scale wars. To any of these three countries, a full scale war is far too costly for the negligible benefits, if any, that may be brought about.

On the other hand NK is quite unpredictable. For numerous times it has declared that it would launch missile attacks against the Japan proper and in fact it launched one in late 90s that fell into the Pacific. Still as a whole the top guys in NK have mastered the political art of dancing on the fine line between peace and war without crossing it.

[Mystes]

They already have a military force of respectable size and power, regardless how they name it officially. The strength of JSDF is arguably beyond the minimal "self-defence" purposes as envisioned by the drafters of the post-WW2 peace treaty, just as how the DPRK is far from democratic, people-centric in nature and is not a republic at all.

I think the only thing that was important to the US is that JDSF should not be meant for starting a war or such.

Small scale conflicts will continue between Japan and SK as well as between Japan and China over the tiny islands in the Japan Sea and the Pacific. But I can't see how such conflicts will blow up into full-scale wars. To any of these three countries, a full scale war is far too costly for the negligible benefits, if any, that may be brought about.

Japan-China import-export is the greatest in the world. And unlike the US, if they were to make war, they will suffer great damages, since they're close to each other. In the US' case, they are seperated from Iraq and Afghanistar by an ocean and more.

On the other hand NK is quite unpredictable. For numerous times it has declared that it would launch missile attacks against the Japan proper and in fact it launched one in late 90s that fell into the Pacific. Still as a whole the top guys in NK have mastered the political art of dancing on the fine line between peace and war without crossing it.

In NK's case, it's hard to say what is their main goal. Communism? Invade SK? Hard determine it. However, I believe that many CIA agents are in North Korea trying to figure out. And the CIA is probably one of the greatest weopon in the world, regardless how people say they're not good o no matter how much Kennedy criticized it.

[Doraneko]

In NK's case, it's hard to say what is their main goal. Communism? Invade SK? Hard determine it. However, I believe that many CIA agents are in North Korea trying to figure out. And the CIA is probably one of the greatest weopon in the world, regardless how people say they're not good o no matter how much Kennedy criticized it.

Same as the CCP of PRC, its main goal is the preservation of its regime. To achieve that it needs legitimacy among its people and a strong sphere of influence in the international world.

CCP achieves its legitimacy through its promise of providing economic well-being to the 1.3 billion Chinese population and incremental successes in achieving that. On the other hand the NK autocrats achieve that by fulfilling national pride through militaristic acts, scientific (read: arms) development and brain-washing.

As for maintaining international influence, it is especially essential for "rogue nations" like NK as any sign of weaknesses will make them end up as the next Iraq. NK achieves that by random provocations, regular display of force through drills and missile tests, and the development of a sophisticated military export industry that prevent them from being truly isolated (Even to NK, PRC is extremely untrustworthy as an ally).

On the other hand, they also know the risk of breaking PRC/US's tolerance, so they are careful enough to balance their hostile acts with friendly gestures such as participating in six-party talks and hand-shaking with CCP heads / US diplomats.

It is obvious that full-scale wars totally go against the primary objective of regime preservation. That is why it is extremely unlikely to see their provocations escalating into wars.

As for CIA plots against Kim, unless the US plans to take over the country like Iraq regardless of the risk of PRC retaliation, it would be the last thing they would do. It is imaginable that losing both its military and spiritual leader will send NK into chaos. It is not unlikely in such a scenario that certain generals will seize power and test their luck by turning Seoul or even Tokyo into an inferno. After all, unlike Kim they have no legitimacy among their own people and they can only assert that by external aggressions.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Using complacency as an excuse to build up a military is just asking for a war. Generally, the rhetoric used by such politicians and leaders that hold that position are ultra-nationalistic nutjobs looking to take over or destroy other nations.

Every first world nation in the world including Europe (hich has serious issues with their military forces) invest in military advancement and RnD.

Yet I don't see wars breaking out because of that.

No...wars occur because of other more fundamental reasons. If there was strong enough reason to fight then you'll be forced to do so eventually.

In any case whether Japan needs a military or not is an issue of naming only. SDF or not, Japan has the strongest naval force among all East Asian countries. It would be a joke to imagine that Japan is defenceless even without US assistance. If the reason for a military to exist is deterrence instead of some stupid ego boost, then they already have one - a very effective one too.

If they want, they can rename JSDF as the military or "Nerv" or "SOS" or "Catgirls" but everything will still be technically the same. The core problem is the budget cuts that have been preventing the de facto military from improving its people and equipment. "Military" is by no means a magic word that would make money pour into the military bases like rain. If the hypothetical Japanese National Military Force has insufficient funds to upgrade its arms, it will still call the Big Daddy for help in any event of military conflict.

But even a fool can tell the negative reactions from her neighbours will be tremendous if any change to the Peace Constitution is to be brought about. So why risk losing all the hard-earned trust and friendship, and thereby commercial relationships and business deals, for a label that would bring you nothing at all except some militaristic ego boost?

On top of that if they declare military independence, they will receive less protection from the US for sure since even the US is pressed with budget cuts. In all likelihood the unnecessary change will make Japan more prone to military attacks from hostile forces. All the hassles for nothing in return.

Rather than wasting time and energy on fruitless political rhetoric such as "legitimizing the Japanese military" or "abolishing article 9 of the constitution", it would be more beneficial for the nationalists and right-wingers to lobby for an increase in military spendings.

But no one is contending that despite being superior pound for pound to the PLA they can hold off a Chinese assault forever. They are too small at present.

Yes they should lobby for increased military funding rather than the mere title. As it is Japan can do well to own their own 5th gen fighter after Russia and the US amongst other things.

Which goes to show the right wingers in Japan are all brainless fanatics that should be kept at least ten mile radius from any policy making session.

After all China can buy the Varyag and claim it's a "casino ship" while Imperial Japan could say Yamato met all Washington Treaty specifications...it's not that hard to pay lip service to mere articles.

[Doraneko]

But no one is contending that despite being superior pound for pound to the PLA they can hold off a Chinese assault forever. They are too small at present.

Which is why it makes perfect sense from the Japanese perspective to continue to rely on the US-Japan security pact.

In the past when China was technologically backward, military superiority could be achieved by advance technology. But with the narrowing of the technological gap such advantage is becoming less and less significant. The determining factor of winning a war goes back to the traditional factors of resources and production capacity.

Japan has very few resources and limited production capacity when compared to the vast China. Given the decreasing technological advantages, it is impossible for Japan to build a military that can hold off China forever even if it has unlimited funding. On the other hand the US is not only superior in terms of technology but also comparable in terms of resources and production capacity.

The US nuclear umbrella is another effective deterrent. If a war is to break out between China and Japan, China can quickly end it with a few nukes without caring about its naval inferiority and other conventional military issues. Adding the US nuclear arsenal into the equation multiples the cost of such a war to an unimaginable level.

Therefore, the most sensible route for Japan to take is to stick closely to the pact, while at the same time legitimately build up its military under the title of JSDF. Too bad for the US national debt and the American taxpayers, though.

[Mystes]

In my opinion. Japan should stop stocking their funds for the military in that case. Let the US do the work, and try to give the yen back to a normal value.

[ainsoph9]

On the other hand the NK autocrats achieve that by fulfilling national pride through militaristic acts, scientific (read: arms) development and brain-washing.

As for maintaining international influence, it is especially essential for "rogue nations" like NK as any sign of weaknesses will make them end up as the next Iraq. NK achieves that by random provocations, regular display of force through drills and missile tests, and the development of a sophisticated military export industry that prevent them from being truly isolated (Even to NK, PRC is extremely untrustworthy as an ally).

On the other hand, they also know the risk of breaking PRC/US's tolerance, so they are careful enough to balance their hostile acts with friendly gestures such as participating in six-party talks and hand-shaking with CCP heads / US diplomats.

It is obvious that full-scale wars totally go against the primary objective of regime preservation. That is why it is extremely unlikely to see their provocations escalating into wars.

As for CIA plots against Kim, unless the US plans to take over the country like Iraq regardless of the risk of PRC retaliation, it would be the last thing they would do. It is imaginable that losing both its military and spiritual leader will send NK into chaos. It is not unlikely in such a scenario that certain generals will seize power and test their luck by turning Seoul or even Tokyo into an inferno. After all, unlike Kim they have no legitimacy among their own people and they can only assert that by external aggressions.

The problem here is that most of the population hates Kim's guts anyhow, especially among the lower classes. They have nothing to eat because all of the money is going to Kim and his bureaucrats, of which much of it is being spent on military. About the best chance for anyone to eat is to join the military and become a high ranking officer. Most of the lower ranking officers do not fair any better, if at all, than the peasantry. So, taking out Kim really would not present too much of a problem in terms of people not being able to live without him as in the case of Hirohito after WWII. It is just that the fact of the matter is that the world is too concentrated on Iran right now and that Obama does not have the guts (or ability questionably) to take him out.

On that note, people seriously need to ask why the situation is the way it is. Why are they beefing up their military and becoming a weapons dealer when all of these other problems exist outside of the fact that Kim is a corrupt !#$@ that needs to be taken out? If one follows the trail of weapons and money, one will find that NK has huge ties to another problematic country or two. Take a guess which ones they are. Ready? The first is Iran for sure. Up until the whole arms deal fell through between Russia and Iran, Russia was definitely another. Others have speculated that China has their hands in this as well, which makes sense, given their votes on the UNSC and the fact that they are the only ones who could make the banking possible.

In my opinion. Japan should stop stocking their funds for the military in that case. Let the US do the work, and try to give the yen back to a normal value.

First of all, the United States does not have the budget for it right now, given the fact that we are trying get out of debt with Saudi Arabia and China. (Follow the money again. ) Secondly, why is it that when something goes wrong in the world, the world wants the United States to bail them out one way or another? Then, after they get there, all we hear is the world griping about how the United States is playing the job of the world police force and not doing it right while the rest of the world sits on its hands. I never understood this. Seriously, you can have it one way or the other, but you cannot have it both ways without sounding like a bunch of ungrateful brats. Now, I am not saying this about anyone here on this forum or anything of the sort, but this is some of the perception that many Americans have gotten. I realize that Americans can act pompous and arrogant at times, but I think that that goes for everyone. So, why can we not allow each other to be human on this one?

[Mystes]

Actually, it is obvious that NK didn't made the weapons by themselves. If you're talking about an atomic bomb, then there's no freakin' way, since no one there has decent education.

Here are my comments for the three countries mentionned.

1. Iran

Though indeed, there has been a lot of talk about Iran, Brazil and another country whatsoever, making trades on explosives, atomic materials or such things, I highly doubt that Iran would be ready to sell weapons to NK like that. Iran needs weapons in case the US decide to attack them, so until there's more than they need, they'll probably keep the weapons for themselves.

2. Russia

I think that Russia is not the USSR anymore. Russia has more concerns over its economy, and trying to save money for that Tchernobyl thing that needs to be replaced soon. Though it won't probably ruin Russia, that structure is evaluated, if I'm not mistaken, to 2.2 billion of US$ or such. That's still a lot. So save where you can save.

Also, it has been noticed that these times, President Medvedev and PM Poutine have some conflicts. War in Libya is an example. However, there's no smoke without fire; I guess that to not worsen the good relationship between them, there won't be any great movements. So they'll keep the status quo towards NK.

3. China

Moscow is in the western Europe, so it's more easy to deal. However, Beijing and Pyongyang are much closer. Historically, China is on the side of NK, but it was only for the sake of Communisism. Nowadays, both countries are going on different ways. What the next China chairman (forgot his name) will do is to resolve and stabilize China's economy, and make sure that the US would pay back its debt. (Impossible in my mind, but still.) Though wars have made the economy great in NA, it's not really th case in Asia and Europe, since countries are close to each other. Even if NK is much weaker than China, if there's any bombs (that are working) that land on China, it's the crisis. So China needs to be very careful of what they are doing, to not end up like US-Afganistan.

Also, the main reason why China often veto or does not take part of the vote in the UN council is so it doesn't have any enemy. Think of the reason why US didn't help GB in thei conflicts during the 1910s; it was for the sake of doing business with different countries, so that economy would go up. Same case here.

[Poke2201]

Holy crap this thread has become interesting fast.

In my opinion. Japan should stop stocking their funds for the military in that case. Let the US do the work, and try to give the yen back to a normal value.

First of all, the United States does not have the budget for it right now, given the fact that we are trying get out of debt with Saudi Arabia and China. (Follow the money again. ) Secondly, why is it that when something goes wrong in the world, the world wants the United States to bail them out one way or another? Then, after they get there, all we hear is the world griping about how the United States is playing the job of the world police force and not doing it right while the rest of the world sits on its hands. I never understood this. Seriously, you can have it one way or the other, but you cannot have it both ways without sounding like a bunch of ungrateful brats. Now, I am not saying this about anyone here on this forum or anything of the sort, but this is some of the perception that many Americans have gotten. I realize that Americans can act pompous and arrogant at times, but I think that that goes for everyone. So, why can we not allow each other to be human on this one?

I agree with this sentiment. I have heard many people complain about how the US is always trying to help other countries, but when the going gets tough, everyone looks to the US for help. Everyone is in the hole, and if someone cant understand that its a different world now, they are in for a huge surprise.


Speaking of NK, Kim is quite the magnificent Itsuki... You kill a few South Koreans and then get off pretty much scot free. If NK does try to cause a war, it wont end quickly, as I can see China moving to protect NK if the US even makes one move against them. That pretty much means NK can do pretty much anything because everyone's hands are tied by China at the moment.

[Mystes]

Speaking of NK, Kim is quite the magnificent Itsuki... You kill a few South Koreans and then get off pretty much scot free. If NK does try to cause a war, it wont end quickly, as I can see China moving to protect NK if the US even makes one move against them. That pretty much means NK can do pretty much anything because everyone's hands are tied by China at the moment.

China is x here. And Nk should be y. NOt the opposite.